Oscar Predictions From a Regular Moviegoer Who Saw 101 Films Released in 2018
I spent a lot of time over the past year sitting (or often reclining) inside of movie theaters.
It was a unique year. I signed up for MoviePass on January 5th, then AMC Stubs A-List in June, and being that I live close to public transit in San Francisco — I was able to see a shit ton of movies in 2018.
Here’s how it broke down:
I saw 39 movies using MoviePass, 36 using AMC Stubs A-List, I paid out-of-pocket to see 14 additional films during their theatrical release, saw 7 via Netflix (either streaming or discs by mail), and saw the final 5 either through an Xfinity cable rental or a premium channel OnDemand offering.
As a regular, admittedly obsessive moviegoer I decided to rank each film based not only on my own preference, but my intuition on its likelihood to receive a Best Picture nomination at the 2019 Academy Awards. Not only have I spent a lot of time over the past year sitting (or often reclining) inside of movie theaters, but for a while now I’ve made it a point annually to see all of the Oscar Best Picture nominated films, I read sites like The Hollywood Reporter, and try to keep up with award season buzz via Twitter and Google News searches. Does that make me qualified to be a part of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences? Absolutely not, but when I realized I was likely to see over a hundred films I thought that I’d at least seen enough movies this year to make some sort of decent predictions.
Sadly, my ability to see a seemingly endless amount of movies for under $30 a month might be coming to an end. Although MoviePass had been through a turbulent year, I remained a subscriber because of their partnership with Landmark Theaters. The theater chain — which was previously owned by Shark Tank entrepreneur Mark Cuban — has three locations here in SF and MoviePass had worked well with their e-ticketing platform that would let you reserve seats in advance. However, e-ticketing at Landmark Theaters disappeared from the app mysteriously last week. AMC is also raising the monthly fee to continue being an A-List member in 2019, and only guarantees membership rights for a year.
For years movie ticket prices had been steadily increasing (partially because of luxury upgrades like the aforementioned reclining seats), to the point that it would cost $50.38 (exactly) for my husband and I to go and see Aquaman in IMAX 3D in downtown SF if we were to buy tickets off Fandango right now. But in 2018, there was a glimmer of hope, a much-needed change in the way frequent moviegoers could consume movies. As a result, film fans with time to kill like myself were able to enjoy casual, frequent moviegoing in addition to pricier, event-worthy movie going. Will the movie industry continue to embrace subscription models in the years to come? Who knows.
All that being said, and without further ado, I present my nine predictions for films likely to be nominated for Best Picture at the 2019 Academy Awards, in alphabetical order.
A Star Is Born
Starring Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born is a thoroughly enjoyable film, full of amazing musical performances that showcase both Gaga and Cooper’s vocal talents, and intense moments that had me reaching for my tissues.
Cooper and Gaga have great chemistry on-screen, and each seem likely to be recognized with Best Actor and Actress nominations. In fairness, not only did the movie feel familiar given that it was a remake, but it also reminded me of Country Strong, the Gwyneth Paltrow led drama from a few years back, so I would hardly say that A Star Is Born was the most original film of the year.
Overall, A Star Is Born is an entertaining picture that’s modern and relevant, with impressive visuals, and original music. Three key factors that Academy members seem to have taken into consideration in selecting previous Best Picture nominees.
Beautiful Boy
This one might be my most unlikely prediction, being that it currently has a 67% score on Rotten Tomatoes, and that it hasn’t been getting many Best Picture nominations from other awards committees, but I think Beautiful Boy might snag an Oscar nom.
The entire cast was phenomenal. Not only did Steve Carell and Timothée Chalamet (who I think will get a Best Supporting Actor nomination) excel, but Maura Tierney shone in one particular scene that had me on the edge of my seat. Beautiful Boy was visually stunning, current, emotionally moving, and presented a gripping, very real portrayal of drug abuse.
If you want to get ready for the Oscars, but can’t get to the movie theaters as often as an obsessive moviegoer like me, Beautiful Boy will be available to stream on Amazon, for Prime Members in early January.
Black Panther
Black Panther will be the first superhero film to be nominated for a Best Picture Oscar, mark my words.
Then again, last year I probably would have said the same thing about Wonder Woman. Obviously, they are entirely different movies, from different cinematic universes, and can’t really be compared. But, Black Panther introduced us to the dazzlingly new and impressive world of Wakanda, and connected with audiences and critics alike in a way that makes me think it will get recognition at the Oscars.
Black Panther was inspiring, inventive, imaginative, and was dripping with talent. Also, and not to rely on Rotten Tomatoes because I clearly don’t, but Black Panther has a 97% score, whereas Wonder Woman only had a score of 93%. Additionally, Black Panther was nominated for Best Motion Picture — Drama at the 2019 Golden Globe Awards, so signs are pointing towards it getting an Oscar nom as well.
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
I almost feel guilty about how much I enjoyed Can You Ever Forgive Me? Melissa McCarthy’s portrayal of Lee Israel was bloody fantastic. This was easily a career best performance for her, and Richard E. Grant met her toe-for-toe. The two were a vision to witness on screen, in a film that was decidedly both dark and delightful. It was also gut-wrenchingly hysterical.
The writing was incredible. Tight and laugh-out-loud funny. But Can You Ever Forgive Me? isn’t your average comedy, far from it, in fact. Based on the true story of the down-on-her luck author’s plagiarized literary letters gig, Can You Ever Forgive Me? pulls on your heart-strings in a truly powerful way.
Green Book
After being named Best Picture by the National Board of Review, and receiving recognition at the Toronto International Film Festival, Green Book seems well poised to receive a number of Oscar nominations, and for good reason!
Green Book is a satisfying tale about courage, bravery, and rising above bigotry. The film follows the development of a friendship between Tony Lip (played by Viggo Mortensen) and Dr. Don Shirley (Mahershala Ali) as they journey through the American deep south in the 1960s. The name of the movie, Green Book, is actually a reference to the booklet that people used to find black-friendly hotels during the time. It might be a stretch to imagine it winning the Oscar though, as Green Book has received criticism for how its story is told, and critics aren’t responding to the movie as strongly as audiences seem to be.
If Beale Street Could Talk
It may be set in early-1970s, but If Beale Street Could Talk is a timeless love story, that deals with topics like racism and discrimination in a uniquely relevant way. Don’t be mistaken by my use of the phrase “love story” though, because Beale Street isn’t just a romantic love story, because at its core, the movie really is more about family love and support.
Director Barry Jenkins’ follow-up to 2016’s Moonlight is a magnificent feast for the eyes, full of vivid colors, period authentic clothing and styling, and emotionally charged performances from both lead and supporting cast members that make Beale Street a spectacle to behold. It only recently hit theaters, and will likely continue to remain there throughout awards season as Beale Street has already begun getting recognition from various groups, and is a solid bet for an Oscar nom.
Roma
Roma is the type of movie that will have you literally glued to the screen. Every scene is a visual masterpiece, and I’m confident that even with my saying that, it’s improbable that anyone could be let down after watching the film.
Director Alfonso Cuarón uses the scenes around his actors to convey tensions over land and unrest in Mexico over land ownership, in addition to the main story involving protagonist Cleo (beautifully played by Yalitza Aparicio) and the family she works for. The effect is mesmerizing, and sets Roma apart from all of the other movies I’ve seen this year. Yes, Roma is a black and white film, but it’s done in an ingenious way where shadows and background almost become part of the foreground.
If you’ve got a Netflix membership then you can watch Roma right now, which is sort of cool, in my opinion. Although some in the movie industry seem to take issue with streaming services providing little to zero theatrical release windows before offering films to their subscribers, I think that it could help get more people interested in watching award shows by giving them a convenient way to watch nominated pictures from home.
The Favourite
There’s no other word to better describe Yorgos Lanthimos’ The Favourite than brilliant. Likewise, the performances of the three main actresses Olivia Colman, Emma Stone, and Rachel Weisz are also simply put, brilliant.
The Favourite is deliciously twisted, and legitimately head-scratching at times. With an ending that will have you wondering, what the actual hell? It might not quite be every moviegoers cup of tea per se, and it probably isn’t the kind of movie to take young children to, but I can’t imagine a scenario where The Favourite won’t get an Academy Award nomination for Best Picture of the year.
Vice
Christian Bale teams up with the director and co-writer of The Big Short, Adam McKay, again in Vice — which tells the “untold” story of the life of power-hungry former Vice President of the United States Dick Cheney and his family. Bale plays the lead, Amy Adams plays Lynne Cheney, and Sam Rockwell plays former President George W. Bush. It’s straight up nuts how much the cast of actors look like the respective real-life people they’re portraying.
But beyond resembling their characters, the performances of all the main cast are sensational. Although the style of the film reminded me of The Big Short a number of times, overall Vice is a truly unique picture, and for a movie based on a true story it was both surprising at times, and oddly heart-felt. Plus there’s a moment about halfway into the film with the Cheney family by the lake of one of their properties that I’ve never before seen done in a motion picture. It made me laugh out loud, and also had me pondering what could have been for hours.
My prediction for the Best Picture Oscar Award…
I predict that the 2019 Oscar Best Picture winner will be: If Beale Street Could Talk. However, it honestly feels like a really close call between Beale Street and Vice, as it’s difficult to think of any reasons to criticize either film. All said and done though, the acting, directing, and final result of all the talent that went into Beale Street was just a hair tighter than Vice, which is why I think Beale Street will be the big winner at the 2019 Oscars.
Honorable Mentions
The following films aren’t likely to get nominated for Best Picture at this years Oscars, IMO, but I thought they were worth mentioning either because they just barely didn’t make the cut when I was making my list of predictions, or because I genuinely think they’re worth watching.
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
I actually went back and forth on whether Black Panther or Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse would break the mold and become the first modern superhero movie to get a Best Picture nomination. They’re both wonderful movies, and, like Black Panther, Spider-Verse also had unique and interesting visuals, along with a great story. Unfortunately, I can’t see both Black Panther and Spider-Verse getting Oscar nominations this year, and my gut tells me that Black Panther will be the one to clinch it. Awards aside, Spider-Verse is a great film for viewers of all ages that’s still showing in theaters!
Mary Poppins Returns
Being the hard-core, insanely obsessed, awkward adult Disney fan that I am, I couldn’t not mention Mary Poppins Returns in this piece. It’s been getting plenty of awards, including Best Picture noms at the Critic’s Choice and Golden Globe Awards, and I really wanted it to, but I don’t see Mary Poppins Returns getting a Best Picture nomination at this year’s Oscars. Don’t get me wrong, in my scoring I gave Mary Poppins Returns a nine out of ten. I highly recommend seeing it, and imagine it will get a handful of other nominations at the 2019 Academy Awards, just not Best Picture.
The Wife
I’m quite certain that Glenn Close will get a Best Actress nomination for her outstanding performance in The Wife, and in general I think the film is just a hair away from being among the best movies of 2018. It may seem like an obscure concept, a writer and his wife preparing for his acceptance of the Nobel Peace Prize, but the story will absolutely keep you interested. Unfortunately The Wife isn’t still showing in many theaters, and it’s too soon to be available to stream or rent. But trust me, The Wife is definitely worth a viewing if you see it somewhere to stream or at a Redbox.
Searching
I’ve been surprised by the lack of awards season love for Searching. Starring John Cho, Searching is an impressive triumph, and a true example of how a movie doesn’t need to fit a certain mold in order to be not only entertaining, but thrilling. The thing that makes Searching so different is that all of the footage seen in the movie appears to have been captured by technology, think Apple FaceTime, video chats, clips from social media vids, etc. It makes the story of a father’s efforts to find his missing daughter feel especially personal but also mystifying. Searching is available to rent on Amazon or you can get the DVD/Blu Ray from Netflix.
And that’s all, folks.
If you enjoyed reading about my Oscar predictions and recommendations, or if you disagree with my predictions then leave a response and let me know!
